Scenarios
Click here for introductory information
Management Changes
A farmer or grower has to take a lot of factors into account when he grows crops: temperature, moisture, nutrients, plant diseases and other factors. This makes it difficult to try out new ideas or practices. After all, when a change does not have the desired effect this will impact the production and the profit of the business. It is for this reason that farmers and growers are sometimes reluctant to change their ways.
A digital twin can help to experiment more, as it helps to anticipate the possible effects of a change on the production of the specific farm or horticulture business. This anticipation is based on past data collected at the farm/greenhouse and will therefore be attuned to this context. Having this information ahead of time helps to trust the proposed change and makes it easier to switch to a different work-style; such as, for example, biological farming.
The digital twin can also offer other possibilities. Some of the farmers we interviewed mentioned that a digital twin allows farmers and growers to assess the situation on their farm/greenhouse from another location. This would change the need for their physical presence at their farm and make it easier to leave the farm during leisure. Furthermore, farmers and growers also mentioned that the digital twin gives farm management a more office-like aspect, as it is done with a computer at a desk. In a further more robotized future, robots could interact with the digital twin and make it possible that farmers sit behind their desk and instruct the robots to do the work on their farm/greenhouse. This would make it even possible to expand their business to other countries and have farms or greenhouses there too, creating an international business that is (mostly) run from one place.
Communication with customers and within the chain
A digital twin could help farmers and growers to communicate with their potential customers about their products. They could explain how these products are produced, what they do to work sustainably or what they do to foster animal welfare. In this way, farmers/growers have an opportunity to market their product; showing the advantages of the product and their way of running the farm. If they use the digital twin to tell this story about themselves and the production process leading to the product, this can help them explain the price of their product and enhance understanding of their customers and, eventually, a willingness to pay a better price.
Within the value-chain a digital twin makes it easier for farmers/growers to communicate to supermarkets, retailers, food-processors and other actors. Because of predictions that a digital twin offers, actors know in advance what they can expect in terms of quality and quantity of their product. This facilitates collaboration between actors in the value-chains and allows to align processing activities. Processes can be attuned to the information and predictions provided by the digital twin and smoothen the communication between actors.
Empowerment in relation to government
The data from a digital twin can show exactly the situation on a farm or greenhouse. Government can request or oblige the delivery of this data to see if relevant policies are followed and if rules are broken. The twin would then be used as a tool to control farmers. On the other hand, a digital twin could also give farmers and growers the possibility to defend themselves and prove that they did adhere to rules or explain why they had to work the way they did. This could foster mutual understanding and dialogue, for instance. Another possibility is that the data from farmers and growers allows government to develop policies that are tailored to farmers and growers needs and which are better attuned to the circumstances in which they work.
Ownership of the DT
A farmer or grower can be the owner of the digital twin themselves, but in the future other actor could also manage the digital twin of a farm or greenhouse. Possible actors are: the farmer/grower themselves, (independant) consultants, consultants from large cooperations, companies specified for the use of digital twins, companies that also have other farming products. Possibly in the future companies specifically focussed on the monitoring of greenhouses might come into being, these could give grower tasks to carry out based on the information of their digital twin.
Scenario's
Please note that these scenarios are the ones that followed from our interviews with farmers and we do not claim they are representative on a larger scale or for all different agrifood sectors. We believe however that they are valuable, because they offer a way to broaden the reflection of the participants. It is important to note, however, that participants are free to offer their own interpretation of scenarios or to add alternative imaginations of the future based on their own specific context.
The five scenarios presented here are the ones we discussed in our workshop. Please click on them to look at them.
Collaboration and education
A digital twin allows farmers and growers to learn from each other by watching each other’s digital twin. This allows to inform themselves and improve their growing practices in order to increase the quality and/or quantity of their production.
Changing to biological farming/growing might also become easier when farmers and growers can look at other companies and see how biological growing practices are realized there and what the results are. This knowledge can help them make a better estimation of the effect on their own farm.
Farmers and growers also imagined that they can use the digital twin to sell their knowledge to foreigners. They anticipated that they could develop this into an extra business model. Others, however, also imagined this to be bad for the competition, as having more knowledge strengthens one’s position in the competition with others.